…or at least more so than the guy who claims to be one in the latest “Screw-Big-Oil” e-mails that is wafting past my inbox.
This one has THIS IS NOT THE ‘DON’T BUY’ GAS FOR ONE DAY, BUT IT WILL SHOW YOU HOW WE CAN GET GAS BACK DOWN TO $1.30 PER GALLON in it. It also includes this rich statement:
This was sent by a retired Coca Cola executive. It came from one of his engineer buddies who retired from Halliburton.
At least we now know the real reason Pepsi has been shut out of Tikrit.
Actually, this isn’t going to be another debunking e-mail – David and Barbara Mikkelson have already handled that at the Urban Legend Reference Pages. My beef is with the bogus call to authority:
I am sending this note to 30 people. If each of us send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) … and those 300 send it to at least ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)…and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth group of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers.
If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes one level further, you guessed it….. THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!
Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That’s all!
(If you don’t understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is send this to 10 people…. Well, let’s face it, you just aren’t a mathematician. But I am . so trust me on this one.
Trust you? Hah!
A real mathematician wouldn’t have made elementary mistakes – like confusing possibilities with probabilities. Go ahead – send an e-mail to 10 friends, and ask them to send it to ten more. What are the odds that you have many of the same friends?
If we assume that there are 300-million people in the United States, and
if we assume none of them are children, and
if we assume that nobody has multiple e-mail addresses, and
if we assume there is no duplication in the lists,
then maybe I’ll buy this explanation.
The thing that really chaps me is how often we fall for bogus claims to authority. “I am a mathematician, so trust me on this one.” It’s a classic fallacy of informal logic, to attempt to belittle or berate the reasoning of another. It is also related, loosely, to a weak ad hominem argument: you’re not as smart as I am, so you must be wrong.
There’s also something very, very wrong about a person who issues an unsolicited promise. “Trust me.” You know, I never indicated that I didn’t trust you. Yet you proffer an explanation. Psychologically, you’re telling me a great deal about your trustworthiness, or lack thereof. (citation: The Gift of Fear, by Gavin de Becker.)
(standing on soapbox) – I get a little testy when people try using the appeal to authority, and in a bullying fashion. Most often, I see it on forums and blogs pertaining to climate change. I’m not going to waste my time digging through data and reports that are prefaced with “The debate is over, and all the experts agree.” Well, as a matter of fact, they don’t agree. And don’t start your argument with “Dr. Gasbag is a shill for Big Oil.” That’s an ad hominem if I’ve ever heard one.
You want to frustrate those who abuse the appeal to authority? Just calmly ask questions. And when the answers come couched as attacks or informal bullying techniques, politely ask the question again.
“Trust me. I’m a psychologist.”
[tags]Ike Pigott, Occam’s RazR, mathematics, economics, argumentation, rhetoric, psychology, The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker, Urban Legends[/tags]
