My Chippendale Adventure

by Ike in Humor

So, exactly how does one dress up as a Chippendale and keep his job (without actually being a Chippendale)?

“Sure, everyone dresses up for Halloween.”"It’s a tradition in the office.”

“Last year, we grabbed a boombox and did a conga line through the cafeteria.”

You’d think I would have seen through it. I even asked several times if this was a joke, to haze the newbies. I was assured repeatedly that this was a fun office, a department that believed in breaking the tension, and raising morale.

I heard, in intricate detail, about the costumes everyone would be wearing. And how much easier it would be to go straight from work to Friday night Halloween parties without having to go home to change.

Yep, I bought it.  Even after seeing Pam get stiffed by her colleagues at the New York Dunder-Mifflin office last night. She dressed up as Charlie Chaplin only to find that no one else was in costume. (Even worse, she couldn’t remove the hat, because then she looked like Hitler.

So here I am, at the office.  Dressed as a Chippendale.

Happy Halloween, everyone.

Gotcha.

Fishing

by Ike in Economics, My Quotes, Politics

“Give a man a fish, and he’ll eat for a day.

Teach a man to fish, and you’ll feed him for life.

Give a man a subsidy for fishing, and you’ll have the wrong suckers on the hook for eternity.”

- Ike Pigott

It’s the connections, stupid.

by Ike in Economics, Journalism

A couple of days ago, I noted that the UK’s Guardian went full-feed with its RSS options.  Essentially, it became the first newspaper to do more than send “syndicated teasers.”

We’ve gone from “advertiser-supported ink-on-pulp” to “advertiser-supported pixels-on-screen” to “where-are-the-ads-we-paid-for on a feed”?

Why would any company sever the connection from the ads to the audience? Well, The Guardian didn’t, and I will explain why.

Two Streams of Revenue

Print publications have essentially two ways to make money. They make you pay for the content, or they make you swim through ads to get to the content. Most go with a combination of the two. Consumer Reports long held fast to the subscription-only business model, while Nickel-trader and other hyper-local publications could get by on FREE! distribution, because essentially the content was nothing but ads.

In the second model, a larger circulation is crucial, as is the measurement of that circulation. Your ad rates are built on not just the eyeballs you reach, but the ones you prove you reach.

You are the Paperboy

Now imagine being paid to drop newspapers off every morning on your neighbors’ doorsteps. You are the paperboy. And even worse, your only compensation is a free copy of the newspaper!

Such a business model would never last, because there is a tremendous amount of labor involved in the distribution. Add in the costs of the paper, and you’d probably end up with some type of hybrid monetization that will keep the paperboys happy.

But what if the paperboy never had to lift a finger? Or, more precisely, had to do no more than lift the finger far enough off the mouse to click the “share this” or “email to a friend” icons?

The RSS Sweet Spot

The Guardian’s decision makes perfect sense, especially in light of the Forrester research that some contend spells a peak to RSS adoption. “RSS will never be more than a niche technology,” they say.  And that’s just how the Guardian wants it.  Supposedly, RSS adoption peaks at 11%. If it continued to trend up, then most of the content consumers would be getting it for free. Heck, we ALL could get it for free, and with no ads. If everyone were as geeky and trendy as the 350+ who subscribe to the Occam’s RazR RSS feed, then there would be no incentive to give away the content for free.

Instead, they are counting on the RSS user to have the following characteristics:

  • Wants to be informed
  • Is tech savvy
  • Is more likely to be connected
  • Is more likely to have a huge network
  • Is more likely to be a peer influencer

So, do you give the free newspapers to the guy who will hoard it for himself?  Or to the one whose choices of technology and habit poise him as one likely to drop them off at all the porches in the neighborhood?

Even better - when he does share a story he read for free in the RSS reader, the people he sends the piece to are going to the website, where all those ads are. By linking to the story he read for free, he drives more traffic to the ads he did not see.

None of this happens if RSS adoption goes much beyond where it is now.

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Passing Trains

by Ike in Economics, Statistics, Theory

The following messages came in through my Twitter (and Facebook) stream within a 15-minute span Monday morning:

Laura Howe: wow! metro is really quiet this am. hardly anyone on board for a monday morning.

Rick Murray: Want proof people are driving less: Metra has added a car to this train = 250 more folks doing the green thing downtown.

Metra Train, by Merrick Brown (on Flickr)Two trains, two cities, two divergent opportunities to make an observation. That’s what we do, gather input and try to reorganize it into some semblance of understanding. It’s easier to remember conclusions than the steps it took to get there. It’s easier to remember the final score of a game than a comprehensive list of the plays. The trick is to remember the information that is significant.

Finding the Factor

In geometry, we have theorems - postulates that aren’t true by definition, but have been proven true by experience and derivation from other known truths. We fail when we skip to a new derivation without enough fact to support it. And we do that far too often.

Take Rick’s assertion. Is it indeed a sign of the times? Are there more commuters avoiding high gas prices? Is he basing this on a personal observation or just reading a news release from the operators of Chicago’s Metra?

Now look at Laura’s message. The Metro (DC) is eerily quiet. Does that entail a drop in ridership? Or is there a federal holiday underway, not uncommon for a Monday? Or are more people taking cars?

Truth is, we don’t know. We don’t have enough information. Such a message (or observation) remains strictly anecdotal out of context. Maybe Metra is adding a car in anticipation of behavior that will not materialize. Who knows?

Shortcuts Can Miss the Truth

All too often, we over-apply Occam’s Razor and end up buttressing our previously-held beliefs with new ‘evidence’ that might not apply. Take Laura’s case. How many reasons might there be for such a small number on her train:

  • Holiday
  • More people are driving cars than before
  • Previous train was later than normal, giving a smaller “gap of opportunity” for riders
  • Connecting train was late
  • Erroneous report that trains were closed
  • Laura got on an unusually empty car

Again, who knows? But human nature tells us that when we carry a powerful narrative, we’ll tend to lean in that direction. If you are just convinced that we’re in the worst economy ever, you might even believe no one is on the train because everyone else is at home after a layoff. If you’ve just heard about a flu outbreak, you might blame it on that. Or, if you know there is a parade that day, you might assume people are attending that event instead.

The misapplication of Occam’s Razor occurs when we choose to believe the simplest explanation that matches our preconceived worldview, instead of just the simplest.

And the simplest isn’t always correct - just more likely to be.

Now - for fun - please chime in with your ideas. Come up with your own possible explanations for why Laura’s train might have been unusually empty. Or, share your theories about why Metra is adding a car that might have nothing to do with “going green.”

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Flying Saucers

by Ike in Humor, My Quotes

“If it’s true that ‘Golf is a good walk spoiled,’ then Frisbee Golf is a good walk spoiled by hippies.”

- Ike Pigott