…does not stand for “mathematics.”
I was watching “Good Morning America” this morning, and heard two different math-related gaffes that made me scowl. Sadly, our habits as passive listeners mean that a great number of other mistakes might be sliding under our collective radar.
The first was a simple mis-reporting of a statistic. Chris Cuomo (designated newsreader) was reading an item about illegal immigration. Apparently, the latest statistics from the Border Patrol indicated that fewer people were crossing illegally into the United States. The proof, as read by Cuomo, was a stat indicating that the number of illegal immigrants caught was down 27-percent from last year. Pardon me for being a stick in the mud, but couldn’t that also be an indication of other things?
- Migrants are picking less-monitored locations?
- Border Patrol agents are lazier?
Just off the top of my head. There might be others.
The second math error involved probabilities…
ABC is televising the Academy Awards this year, so it’s GMA’s turn to pimp out the event with the same pomp and ceremony usually reserved for a cancer cure, a moon landing, or a celebrity rehab appearance/custody hearing. Sam Champion was introducing Wednesday’s Oscar Trivia, and indicated that today’s question would be easier than those earlier in the week.
Which two of these movies had the most Academy Award nominations:
- All About Eve
- Casablanca
- Gone with the Wind
- Titanic
As it happens, two of these films tied with 14 apiece — so Sam sold it as being “easier” to get this right, because there are two answers. Sam, we’ll have to ask you to “Play it again,” because this question is measurably more difficult.
Remember, the question isn’t “Name one of the films with the most,” but name both of them. Let’s look at all of the possible answers (answer posted here):
- All About Eve and Casablanca
- All About Eve and Gone with the Wind
- All About Eve and Titanic
- Casablanca and Gone with the Wind
- Casablanca and Titanic
- Gone with the Wind and Titanic
Now, I’m no mathematician, but if this were a question with a single answer among four movies, a blind guess would be right one time in four. But here, there are six possible answers, which means a shot in the dark will hit the target just 1 in 6.
Those of you who are congratulating yourselves for getting it “half right” have only succeeded in hitting the broad side of a barn. Of the six possible answers, only one of them is totally wrong. This is a great question for a morning show, because 83% of the listeners will head to work or chores with some sense of accomplishment, however easily earned.
There are worse sins, I suppose. Not asking the right questions about that immigration figure seems far more important… but is it? We collectively spend a lot of money on the prevention of diseases and conditions that far outweigh the benefit. We encourage people to buy lottery tickets, knowing that the house percentage is greater than any casino. We encourage people to invest their money at 8 percent, while carrying loads of credit card debt at 18%. We grind important projects to a halt to save a heretofore unknown species that may have been on the way out anyway. The miscalculation of probabilities affects us in ways we never think about.
Maybe I ought to start drinking coffee.
Click and drag to see the answer:
All About Eve and Titanic tied with 14 nominations each
[tags]Ike Pigott, Occam’s RazR, Probability, Statistics, ABC News, Chris Cuomo, Sam Champion, Academy Awards[/tags]
