If there is a unifying there here, it’s in explaining the seemingly complex in the most simple way possible.  Occam’s Razor is a means of comparing multiple explanations or theories, with the notion that the simplest is likely the truth.  However, many people are guiding themselves by the fallacy that the simplest explanation is the truth.

The factor that’s missed is the first part of Occam’s Razor, that the theories to be compared are equally sound.  Theories are tested by evidence and experiment, and by their ability to predict the future.  The theory that Atlas is holding up the Earth on his shoulders and standing on the back of a giant tortise is certainly easier to envision than warping of space/time and explaining the math of gravity — but it’s not going to help you calculate orbits.

These thoughts come to mind as I revisit yesterday’s item about Starbucks and the economy.  Many people want to believe the world is a simple place.  If Starbucks is losing jobs, then there are fewer jobs in the retail coffee industry.  If someone is getting rich, then others must be getting poor.  If prices are going up, then someone is being unfair.

Deep down, we all crave simplicity.  The less we have to think, the more we can create and imagine and think about the things we want to.  The danger comes when we paint too simple a picture for ourselves, and end up with a working model of our universe that is flawed.  If someone believes that the rich get richer only by making poor people poorer, and that the only way to get wealth is to inherit it, then that individual will be less likely to engage in the behaviors that would lead to wealth accumulation.  A simple worldview can cloud reality — and in this instance becomes a dangerous self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sometimes it’s okay to shave some edges off the models we use because we don’t need the level of detail the extra work would require.  When the additional complexity isn’t worth the potential reward, then by all means ditch it.  Just be careful about applying your template to other people, as they may have a need for a greater or lesser degree of detail in their results and their reality.

What are some of your pet-peeve oversimplifications?

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