Driven to Distraction

The following post may make me extremely unpopular, but someone has to say it:

Keep your laws off my cell phone.

Texting While Driving

Several states and municipalities have instituted their driving-and-cell-phone laws, and are smugly sure they have now made life safe for everyone. I have a philosophical objection to the idea that you can now ban behavior based on the standard of a “distraction,” because once the precedent is established, anything could be added to that law. For instance, it may one day be illegal to transport young children in a vehicle that lacks a sound-proof divider to keep the driver from being distracted by the children.

You think I am joking? Maybe you do, so let’s look at those hard statistics that show cell phone use is killing people.

Let’s go straight to the data, from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

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(The Fatality-Rate is based on every 100-million vehicle miles traveled.)

You’ll note the data only goes up to 2008. It takes a while to compile all the records from 50 states, but we have a glimpse of 2009. Here’s the summary from the preliminary data for the first 9 months of the 2009 reporting period:

A statistical projection of traffic fatalities for the first three quarters of 2009 shows that an estimated 25,576 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes. This represents a decline of about 7.9 percent as compared to the 27,771 fatalities that occurred in the first three quarters of 2008.

Did you catch that? We’re on pace for another 8-percent drop in fatalities. If there are so many people texting-while-driving, and it is such the menace, why aren’t those numbers higher? After all, mobile phone penetration has gone way up in the last five years.

Prowl the NHTSA site, and search the FARS database for keywords related to that. They aren’t there.

The Torts and the Hair (Trigger)

Since NHTSA doesn’t have the data broken out, where can you find it?

Why, on attorney websites!

Edgar Snyder & Associates in Pennsylvania has done a wonderful job with search engine optimization, inviting people to link to them in a way that boosts their search results. “Copy this code” ensures their link will always show up with the same anchor text, bringing you to the page with the following statistics:

In 2008, at any given moment, over 800,000 Americans were texting, making calls, or using a handheld cell phone while driving during the daytime. With distracted driving killing nearly 6,000 Americans in the same year, it’s no mystery that cell phone use is risky for drivers.

Interesting quote. It almost makes you think that 6,000 Americans died because of cell phone use. But it was really “distracted driving,” which encompasses a number of other activities.

Talking on a cell phone causes nearly 25% of car accidents.

Unsubstantiated. There is no data there to support it.

4 out of every 5 accidents (80%) are attributed to distracted drivers. In contrast, drunk drivers account for roughly 1 out of 3 (33%) of all accidents nationally.

This is laughable. For this to be true, then there must be at least a 13% overlap between the two groups. Which means that 1 out of every 7 accidents happens with a drunk and distracted driver.

A study of dangerous driver behavior released in January 2007 by Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. found that of 1,200 surveyed drivers, 73% talk on cell phones while driving. The same 2007 survey found that 19% of motorists say they text message while driving.

Then why is there a decline in fatalities?

Let’s look at one more here:

In 2002, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis calculated that 2,600 people die each year as a result of using cellphones while driving. They estimated that another 330,000 are injured.

Looking at 2002 in the table above, we see there were 43,000 fatalities in the United States. That number was a peak (only eclipsed by 2005,) yet the Fatality Rate for every 100-million-miles traveled was still going down. Harvard estimates that 2,600 of those 43,000 were blamed on cell phone use. That is six percent. Consider the explosion in wireless phone and data use since 2002, and ask yourself why the fatality rate is still going down at the same rate it has for the last 15 years.

And why am I the only one who is daring to question the math?

Disclaimer

I do not think people should text while driving. I think it is a really stupid thing to do.

That does not equate to justification for poorly written laws, that open to door to many other restrictions.

We’re Gaga for Bad Math

Why are there so many “common sense” notions about this topic that are factually bare?

Let’s do a little thought experiment.

Let’s say that Lady Gaga goes from being popular to immensely popular. Such that, at any given moment you have 30-percent of the cars on the road blasting Poker Face from the stereo. Teens, in particular have been known to wave their arms rhythmically and play air drum to the song.

Lo and behold, we discover that 30-percent of traffic accidents involve people who listen to Lady Gaga. (Finally, a reason to ban her!) And when you look at the projections for just how much more popular she will be next year, it’s clear we need to ban Gaga from car stereos for the betterment of mankind!

Now, is there a causation here, or a correlation? Is there a rise in the number of wrecks where there was a cell phone in use because more people are using cell phones, or because more people using cell phones are getting into accidents?

Please tell me how these three facts mesh:

1. Texting-while-driving causes more accidents.
2. The number of people who text has exploded.
3. Accident rates continue to go down.

Of course, one thing no one takes into consideration is that when you’re texting your friend behind the wheel, it’s awful hard to air drum. It’s also hard to put on makeup, or pick up an envelope that’s fallen between the seats, or change the station, or any number of things.

Texting while driving is stupid. (That’s just to remind you where I stand on this.)

There are dozens of other things that are stupid to do while driving. Banning one for being “distracting” does not guarantee there will be less “risky behavior,” but rather there will be different “risky behavior.”

Why Ike Is An Agent of Satan

My comment section will likely explode with people wanting to tell me how I am spreading dangerous lies, about how I will have blood on my hands, and about how someone they know died tragically in a cell-related car wreck and we have to do something about this scourge.

I get it. I really do.

But I want all of you to understand how we get to the point where emotional appeal turns into bad policy.

The News Media is Bad at Math

Innumeracy is rampant in newsrooms. I know, I used to work in them, and I was quite the anomaly. I actually took statistics in college, and understand concepts like standard deviations and selection bias. When issues like this popped up in the newsroom, producers did their darnedest to steer clear of me working on these stories, because I wouldn’t go by “the script.”

You find a victim. (And if there have been two very recently, no matter how statistically irrelevant that is, it’s A Trend and you get to make special graphics for them and do “team coverage.”)

Then you find an expert, someone who can take all of the statistics that exist and boil them down to something so simple (and useless) that a television producer can understand them.

Take the most salacious pieces, mix them into promotional hyperbole, and serve. But whatever you do, don’t question the numbers. And for God’s sake, don’t go to the source.

Follow the Money

Attorneys make great sources for reporters who need experts on a deadline. After all, they have a graduate degree, and access to all manner of statistics to bolster their case.

You do know there is a case, right?

Attorneys charge by the hour, and they don’t spend their hours researching things that are of no interest to their clients (or future clients.) Do you think Edgar Snyder & Associates is publishing those accident statistics out of the goodness of their hearts? That out of Christian charity, they are not only bearing the bandwidth costs of all those pages, but engaging in search-engine optimization to ensure people find their statistics?

I know many attorneys, and am proud to call several of them friends. But attorneys aren’t unbiased researchers, following facts wherever they lead. They have a sworn duty to advocate for their client. That means running with the statistics and phrasings that trace the outlines, so the juries can color the insides green.

Common Sense is not Infallible

Everybody knows that texting while driving is stupid. At the very least, it’s not a smart thing to do. And depending on the surveys you consider, anywhere from 30-80% of adults are doing just that.

Let’s go back to the Edgar Snyder site for a moment:

84% of cell phone users stated that they believe using a cell phone while driving increases the risk of being in an accident.

Yes, we agree that it increases the risk.

Of cell phone users that were surveyed, 85% said they use their phones occasionally when driving, 30% use their phones while driving on the highway, and 27% use them during half or more of the trips they take.

And yes, we agree that we are (almost) all doing it. So why are the numbers of accidents going down?

Clearly, our “common sense” about this is clouding our judgment.

We Don’t Ask Questions

Look at the following statements:

In 2008, about 6,000 American drivers died in car accidents that involved distracted driving, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

And:

In 2008, the NHTSA estimated that 5,870 people were killed and another half-million injured in cell phone related driving accidents.

They are citing the same number, but the second makes the mistake of conflating “distracted driving” to “cell phone use.” Little wonder, since the the first comes from CNN.com, and the second was written for LuxuryCarReport.com by a 2008 graduate of USC with no journalism training whatsoever. (Given the lack of math smarts in most newsrooms, it’s probably not that much of a drop off.)

How many people who have quoted those stats or linked to that site bothered to look up the background of the writer? How many questioned the unsourced stats? How many bothered to ask if the attorney had a vested interest in drumming up clientèle, with a slam-dunk factor in a civil suit, that we all know must be a factor because common sense tells us so?

Driven Crazy

Driving while texting is crazy. But then again, we do a lot of crazy things. Choosing to do a stupid or reckless thing is stupid, with little regard to the activity one has chosen.

Just be aware of all the other factors at play here. The attorneys who have something to gain, the journalists who need a sensational sounding lede and a desire to feel important again, do-gooders who want to pat themselves on the back for saving the world… what’s not to love?

A permanent scar on our freedoms.

Because these laws, as they are written with “distraction” as the justification, have opened mighty doors for the power of the state. With very little justification, we’ve handed local governments the precedent to ban all sorts of behavior, or require expensive equipment in the name of limiting “distraction.”

Even worse, we continue to pass through life without any degree of critical thinking. We give more power to the iron triangle of specialized interests, an ignorant and dwindling press, and a fickle zeitgeist that will give up everything to save virtually nothing.

We are driven to distraction from the truth; and the real winners are:

• those who gain votes for humoring our pliant consent
• those who earn commissions while trafficking in the pain of others
• those who rent our eyeballs for a sensational piece of journalism-like substance.

If you have lost a loved one to a suspected case of texting while driving, I am very sorry for your loss. Texting while driving is really, really dumb. But let’s not rush into a half-baked solution that ends in political back-slapping and lack of accomplishment. If you want to encourage people to stop doing dumb things, then link to one of the many viral videos that shows the consequences. Make people a little squeamish. Just don’t give another weapon to the next generation of nannies and patrician elitists, who know oh so much better for us than we do.

(Can we start banning Lady Gaga now, before she causes a single needless death? It’s for the children.)