Archives for October 2008

My Chippendale Adventure

Posted on October 31, 2008 Written by

So, exactly how does one dress up as a Chippendale and keep his job (without actually being a Chippendale)?

“Sure, everyone dresses up for Halloween.””It’s a tradition in the office.”

“Last year, we grabbed a boombox and did a conga line through the cafeteria.”

You’d think I would have seen through it. I even asked several times if this was a joke, to haze the newbies. I was assured repeatedly that this was a fun office, a department that believed in breaking the tension, and raising morale.

I heard, in intricate detail, about the costumes everyone would be wearing. And how much easier it would be to go straight from work to Friday night Halloween parties without having to go home to change.

Yep, I bought it.  Even after seeing Pam get stiffed by her colleagues at the New York Dunder-Mifflin office last night. She dressed up as Charlie Chaplin only to find that no one else was in costume. (Even worse, she couldn’t remove the hat, because then she looked like Hitler.

So here I am, at the office.  Dressed as a Chippendale.

Happy Halloween, everyone.

Gotcha.

Share Button
Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged:

Fishing

Posted on October 31, 2008 Written by

{{myquote|Give a man a fish, and he’ll eat for a day.

Teach a man to fish, and you’ll feed him for life.

Give a man a subsidy for fishing, and you’ll have the wrong suckers on the hook for eternity.}}

Share Button
Filed Under: My Quotes Tagged: ,

It’s the connections, stupid.

Posted on October 29, 2008 Written by

A couple of days ago, I noted that the UK’s Guardian went full-feed with its RSS options.  Essentially, it became the first newspaper to do more than send “syndicated teasers.”

We’ve gone from “advertiser-supported ink-on-pulp” to “advertiser-supported pixels-on-screen” to “where-are-the-ads-we-paid-for on a feed”?

Why would any company sever the connection from the ads to the audience? Well, The Guardian didn’t, and I will explain why.

Two Streams of Revenue

Print publications have essentially two ways to make money. They make you pay for the content, or they make you swim through ads to get to the content. Most go with a combination of the two. Consumer Reports long held fast to the subscription-only business model, while Nickel-trader and other hyper-local publications could get by on FREE! distribution, because essentially the content was nothing but ads.

In the second model, a larger circulation is crucial, as is the measurement of that circulation. Your ad rates are built on not just the eyeballs you reach, but the ones you prove you reach.

You are the Paperboy

Now imagine being paid to drop newspapers off every morning on your neighbors’ doorsteps. You are the paperboy. And even worse, your only compensation is a free copy of the newspaper!

Such a business model would never last, because there is a tremendous amount of labor involved in the distribution. Add in the costs of the paper, and you’d probably end up with some type of hybrid monetization that will keep the paperboys happy.

But what if the paperboy never had to lift a finger? Or, more precisely, had to do no more than lift the finger far enough off the mouse to click the “share this” or “email to a friend” icons?

The RSS Sweet Spot

The Guardian’s decision makes perfect sense, especially in light of the Forrester research that some contend spells a peak to RSS adoption. “RSS will never be more than a niche technology,” they say.  And that’s just how the Guardian wants it.  Supposedly, RSS adoption peaks at 11%. If it continued to trend up, then most of the content consumers would be getting it for free. Heck, we ALL could get it for free, and with no ads. If everyone were as geeky and trendy as the 350+ who subscribe to the Occam’s RazR RSS feed, then there would be no incentive to give away the content for free.

Instead, they are counting on the RSS user to have the following characteristics:

  • Wants to be informed
  • Is tech savvy
  • Is more likely to be connected
  • Is more likely to have a huge network
  • Is more likely to be a peer influencer

So, do you give the free newspapers to the guy who will hoard it for himself?  Or to the one whose choices of technology and habit poise him as one likely to drop them off at all the porches in the neighborhood?

Even better – when he does share a story he read for free in the RSS reader, the people he sends the piece to are going to the website, where all those ads are. By linking to the story he read for free, he drives more traffic to the ads he did not see.

None of this happens if RSS adoption goes much beyond where it is now.

[tags]Ike Pigott, Occam’s RazR, journalism, marketing, RSS, syndication, The Guardian, publishing[/tags]

Share Button
Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged: ,

Passing Trains

Posted on October 28, 2008 Written by

The following messages came in through my Twitter (and Facebook) stream within a 15-minute span Monday morning:

Laura Howe: wow! metro is really quiet this am. hardly anyone on board for a monday morning.

Rick Murray: Want proof people are driving less: Metra has added a car to this train = 250 more folks doing the green thing downtown.

Metra Train, by Merrick Brown (on Flickr)Two trains, two cities, two divergent opportunities to make an observation. That’s what we do, gather input and try to reorganize it into some semblance of understanding. It’s easier to remember conclusions than the steps it took to get there. It’s easier to remember the final score of a game than a comprehensive list of the plays. The trick is to remember the information that is significant.

Finding the Factor

In geometry, we have theorems – postulates that aren’t true by definition, but have been proven true by experience and derivation from other known truths. We fail when we skip to a new derivation without enough fact to support it. And we do that far too often.

Take Rick’s assertion. Is it indeed a sign of the times? Are there more commuters avoiding high gas prices? Is he basing this on a personal observation or just reading a news release from the operators of Chicago’s Metra?

Now look at Laura’s message. The Metro (DC) is eerily quiet. Does that entail a drop in ridership? Or is there a federal holiday underway, not uncommon for a Monday? Or are more people taking cars?

Truth is, we don’t know. We don’t have enough information. Such a message (or observation) remains strictly anecdotal out of context. Maybe Metra is adding a car in anticipation of behavior that will not materialize. Who knows?

Shortcuts Can Miss the Truth

All too often, we over-apply Occam’s Razor and end up buttressing our previously-held beliefs with new ‘evidence’ that might not apply. Take Laura’s case. How many reasons might there be for such a small number on her train:

  • Holiday
  • More people are driving cars than before
  • Previous train was later than normal, giving a smaller “gap of opportunity” for riders
  • Connecting train was late
  • Erroneous report that trains were closed
  • Laura got on an unusually empty car

Again, who knows? But human nature tells us that when we carry a powerful narrative, we’ll tend to lean in that direction. If you are just convinced that we’re in the worst economy ever, you might even believe no one is on the train because everyone else is at home after a layoff. If you’ve just heard about a flu outbreak, you might blame it on that. Or, if you know there is a parade that day, you might assume people are attending that event instead.

The misapplication of Occam’s Razor occurs when we choose to believe the simplest explanation that matches our preconceived worldview, instead of just the simplest.

And the simplest isn’t always correct – just more likely to be.

Now – for fun – please chime in with your ideas. Come up with your own possible explanations for why Laura’s train might have been unusually empty. Or, share your theories about why Metra is adding a car that might have nothing to do with “going green.”

[tags]Ike Pigott, Occam’s RazR, statistics, occam’s razor, postulates, theory[/tags]

Share Button
Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged: , ,

Flying Saucers

Posted on October 26, 2008 Written by

{{myquote|If it’s true that ‘Golf is a good walk spoiled,’ then Frisbee Golf is a good walk spoiled by hippies.}}

Share Button
Filed Under: My Quotes Tagged:

The Sub-Prime Primer

Posted on October 22, 2008 Written by

Due credit goes to Tim Walker over at Hoover’s Business Insight Zone, for pointing out the need for a sub-prime primer. However, as the parent of a four-year-old and a four-year-old who just inherited an additional $540 billion in bailout this week (on top of the $840 billion that everyone already knew about,) I felt the need to write a primer that speaks to them.

Actually, any primer that speaks to them ought to start with an apology, followed by sentencing guidelines for the weasels responsible. With any luck, I can get my daughter to illustrate it. Without further adieu, here is the Occam’s RazR Sub-Prime Primer.

Meet Dick

This is Dick.
Dick has a nice shirt.
Dick has a nice tie.
Dick has a nice suit.
Dick owns a bank.

Meet Joe

This is Joe.
Joe has a job.
Joe wants a house.
Joe does his job and gets paid.
He puts his check in the bank.
He puts his check in Dick’s bank.

Joe’s House

Joe wants a house.
Joe does not have lots of cash.
Dick says “Hey Joe. I can give you a loan.
You come to my bank. I see your check.
I know you will pay me back.”
Joe signs his name.
Joe moves in his new house.

Meet Tom

This is Tom.
Tom wants a house too.
Tom has a check that is not as big as Joe’s.
Some days, Tom has no check at all.
Dick likes Tom, but will not give him a loan.
Dick wants to be sure he will be paid back.

Frank is in the House

This is Frank.
Frank has lots of friends. They vote for Frank, and send Frank to D.C.
Frank wants to stay in D.C., so Frank does what his friends want.
Frank thinks he’ll have more friends if he can put more people in houses.
Frank wants to put Tom in a house.

The Phone Call

Dick gets a call at work.
“Hi Dick,” says Frank.
“Hi Frank,” says Dick.
“I want you to put more people into a house,” says Frank.
“But Frank, what if Tom can’t pay me back?” says Dick.
“Too bad,” says Frank. “I will make your bank small. I will let some other Dick buy your bank.”
“But I will lose my shirt,” Dick says.
Frank says “Put Tom in a house. It will be okay.”
Frank says “My friends Fannie and Fred will help.”

Pretty Bubbles

Tom gets a house.
Jane gets a house.
Bill gets a house.
Betsy gets a house.
Everyone gets a house.
So many people want a house, that it costs more to buy a house.
Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy all ask Dick for more money.
Dick is happy, and buys more shirts.

The Bubble Pops

One day, the shiny houses are not new.
Tom wants to sell his house.
Jane wants to sell her house.
Bill wants to sell his house.
Betsy wants to sell her house.
Now a house does not cost much at all.
But Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy do not have the cash to pay Dick.
Dick will lose his shirt.

Pass the Buck

“Hi Frank, this is Dick.”
“Who are you?” said Frank.
“Frank, I am Dick. I own a bank. You told me to put people in houses.”
“What is your problem?” said Frank.
Dick said, “The people in the houses cannot pay me back.”
“That is too bad for you,” said Frank.
“What about Fannie and Fred?” said Dick.
“You have too many shirts,” said Frank. “All you Dicks with banks are bad, bad men.”
Dick did not know what to do.

Dick went to Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy.
“I need my money,” Dick said.
“We don’t have any money,” said Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy.
“Then why did you buy a house if you could not pay?” asked Dick.
“Fannie and Fred will pay you,” said Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy.
Dick asked Fannie and Fred for help.
They said “Go see Frank.”

Bad to be a Bank

Dick still has his bank.
But Dick does not have money to help people.
Dick has no money to loan people.
Even people like Joe.
Joe has a job.
But Joe cannot get a loan to give jobs to more people.

Frank’s Friend Hank

Frank went to his friend Hank.
“Fannie and Fred need more money,” said Frank.
Hank said “What do you mean, Frank?”
Frank said “Fannie and Fred need more money to help Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy.”
Hank said “We can’t give money to Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy. Joe will get mad.”
Frank said “We’ll take care of all of the Joes. We’ll tell them they cannot make more jobs until we help Fannie and Fred.”
Hank said “Fannie and Fred can help all those Dicks with banks.”

Hank did not have enough money to help Fannie and Fred.
Hank went to print some more money.
Hank cannot just make money.
He has to borrow it from Joe’s children.
One day, Joe’s children will be mommies and daddies.
Their little boys and girls will have to pay it back.

Frank Stays in the House

Frank has a new house.
Frank has a new shirt.
Frank has a new tie.
Frank has a new suit.
Frank says Joe has to pay Hank, so Hank can pay Fannie and Fred, so Fannie and Fred can pay Tom and Jane and Bill and Betsy.
Frank tells his friends that Dick is to blame.
Dick loses his shirt.
Joe loses his shirt.
Hank has the bank.
Frank’s friends send him back to DC.

Now… who how much will you pay to hear my daughter recite it and illustrate it? I’m taking bids, she needs the money. Hank’s interest is piling up as we speak. Suddenly Halloween doesn’t seem as scary as it used to…

Share Button
Filed Under: Philosophy Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Molehills out of Mountains

Posted on October 20, 2008 Written by

{{myquote|Governments do not create prosperity, jobs, or wealth. Instead, they afford politicians the honor of leveling a mountain of opportunity so they can run for re-election on a molehill of progress.}}

Share Button
Filed Under: My Quotes Tagged: ,
Next Page »